CPU roadmap: 2007 and beyond
Published: 19 Mar 2007
Q4 2007
AMD focuses on quad cores for desktops
If everything goes according to plan with the quad-core Opteron, we have a feeling we'll see the first native quad-core Athlon processor for desktops before the end of 2007. We've heard rumours it may happen before the fourth quarter, but AMD won't verify any dates so we'll slot it into Q4 as a conservative estimate. We do know these new chips, code-named Agena, will use the Barcelona core, including HyperTransport 3.0. AMD's current Athlons use HyperTransport 2.0 to move data between different PC subsystems. HyperTransport 3.0 will work at faster data rates than the older version and should boost performance. Whether it's enough of a performance leap to help Agena and its dual core-equivalent (code-named Kuma) overtake Core 2 Duo remains the big question.
Introducing a native quad-core desktop part is important for AMD because the company's ad hoc Quad FX solution cannot keep pace with Intel's faster quad-core Core 2 Extreme or Core 2 Quad chips. Granted, Intel's Core 2 Quad chips aren't technically native quad core either, since their design involves two distinct L2 cache allotments for each pair of processing cores. But 65nm Core 2 Quad is much more power and heat efficient than current Quad FX, which requires two physical 90nm CPUs on a single motherboard, along with the accompanying cooling hardware.
Intel wins race to 45nm
Of course, Intel isn't letting up. The company has completed its 45nm manufacturing process, and by the end of the year we expect to see the fruits of that labour. Similar to the release of the Core 2 Extreme X6800 before the rest of the Core 2 Duo line, Intel's highest-end 45nm desktop chips, code-named Wolfdale (dual core) and Yorkfield (quad core), will likely make their first appearance before the close of 2007, with the mainstream counterparts debuting in the beginning of 2008 (we predict we'll hear about them at next year's CES). Since for the most part these chips are more power-efficient Core 2 Duos, the Wolfdale/Yorkfield family probably won't introduce a major technological or performance leap. They're all 45nm chips, so Intel should be able to dial raw clock speeds and cache amounts past their current-generation Core 2 equivalents, but the most significant pure technology change will be a new set of multimedia and performance instructions, called SSE 4.0, which promises to improve data processing efficiency and, hopefully, overall performance.
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